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11.
In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming
at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis
of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step,
‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE
spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of
their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the
direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion
of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s−1, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated
as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’,
we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the
onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8
and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the
relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison
among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method
is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude
of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation
thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency. 相似文献
12.
The dunes in estuary of Tumen River in China lie to the area between the Jiushaping and Fangchuan in the left bank of Tumen River (Fig.1). The dis-tance is about 15~20 km between the dunes and the coast. It ranges from China to D. P. R. Korea and Russia. The range of the height of dunes is about 15~20 m and the width is 100~200 m. By the re-connaissance, we protracted 9 section planes of the dunes and collected 40 sand samples of the dunes, and identified the sedimentary environment … 相似文献
13.
刘峰 《成都信息工程学院学报》2003,18(4):376-380
分组密码是数据通讯中最常用的数据加密方式,以DES为例分析现有分组加密算法的安全隐患,并提出了可变密钥加密和变长密文输出两个新思路,可应用于所有现有分组加密算法以提高安全性,并就该方法的安全性、效率、具体应用做出了分析。 相似文献
14.
CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
WANGHai-xia WANZhong-juan YUShao-peng LUOXin-zheng SUNGuang-you 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2004,14(2):179-185
Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions. 相似文献
15.
探讨用遗传算法对数学模型进行优化。考虑到控制系统稳健性的要求 ,用遗传算法寻找出控制系统最佳稳定域 ,实现控制系统数学模型的寻优。阐述了用遗传算法求解问题的步骤和参数的取值 ,并用仿真实验对优化结果进行了检验。结果表明 :在控制系统数学模型的优化中 ,遗传算法具有其他算法无可比拟的优越性。 相似文献
16.
17.
Observation of fluid parcel pathways in the Kuroshio Stream revealed a striking crossstream pattern associated with the Kuroshio‘‘ s meanders. In order to understand the observed pattern, a two-dimensional kinematic model of a meandering jet was developed which could be used to examine the relationship between streamfunction patterns and fluid parcel trajectories. The experiments designed to investigate the dependence of the water exchanges between the Kuroshio water and its surroundings on the characteristics of the Kuroshio‘‘s meanders involved the downstream speed,phase speed and the amplitude of other propagating waves. The results suggested that fluid parcels could cross the meandering jet to and fro; and that the water exchanges between the Kuroshio and its surroundings increased with a) increasing meander amplitude, b) decreasing downstream speed, and c) increasing wave phase speed. The results also showed that when the meandering jet was disturbed by other propagating waves, more effective water exchanges could be induced. 相似文献
18.
1INTRODUCTION Since the first use in human genetic research in1966,allozyme has become the most popular genetic marker for population genetics studies for almost all groups of animals and plants(Lewontin and Hubby,1966;Murphy et al.,1996).In the past seve… 相似文献
19.
For a Hamiltonian that can be separated into N+1(N\geq 2) integrable parts, four algorithms can be built for a symplectic integrator. This research compares these algorithms for the
first and second order integrators. We found that they have similar local truncation errors represented by error Hamiltonian
but rather different numerical stability. When the computation of the main part of the Hamiltonian, H
0, is not expensive, we recommend to use S
* type algorithm, which cuts the calculation of the H
0 system into several small time steps as Malhotra(1991) did. As to the order of the N+1 parts in one step calculation, we found that from the large to small would get a slower error accumulation.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
20.
The characteristics of red karst weathering crust in the research region can be divided into three subtypes. The first one includes the silicon to aluminum ratio, the composition of the clay minerals, etc., and reflects the weak action of de-silicon and aluminum enrichment. The second one, for example the granularity, shows that the viscous action is strong. The third one, such as the CaCO3 content and pH value, has regional difference in a large scale, which is consistent with the condition of modern scenery, so it is not important as for the ancient environment.
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